Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 34.059939 36.826307 39.838562 43.385712 47.479531 52.094751 57.747636
2025-04-13 29.205617 32.730774 36.810890 41.958945 48.396833 56.350100 67.207067
2025-04-20 27.455428 31.589533 36.598603 43.270823 52.187722 64.127812 82.198152
2025-04-27 26.108203 30.656587 36.369657 44.323587 55.572039 71.765939 98.844932
2025-05-04 24.930551 29.758822 36.005072 45.032011 58.446652 79.090191 117.180593
2025-05-11 23.606620 28.525990 35.033327 44.712685 59.676417 84.015810 133.024680
2025-05-18 22.408625 27.352373 34.013723 44.166516 60.408824 88.176921 148.947397
2025-05-25 21.259765 26.158471 32.857313 43.271506 60.412736 90.996497 163.178348
2025-06-01 20.226560 25.056007 31.743568 42.319163 60.166030 93.259910 177.170190
2025-06-08 19.227701 23.944669 30.541119 41.114776 59.320752 94.171168 188.180853
2025-06-15 18.959351 23.841876 30.796070 42.231353 62.697584 104.430092 232.831824
2025-06-22 18.373759 23.250837 30.280145 42.034489 63.625829 109.634698 265.971810
2025-06-29 17.702195 22.530312 29.565604 41.515567 64.014762 114.067961 302.820244
2025-07-06 16.878528 21.555164 28.414090 40.174133 62.649725 114.005860 321.442056
2025-07-13 16.713458 21.537599 28.736293 41.394802 66.604296 128.765503 440.263811
2025-07-20 16.502595 21.437201 28.915865 42.373484 70.229082 144.276104 620.737107
2025-07-27 16.237619 21.239323 28.922382 43.031465 73.271284 159.598310 898.798380
2025-08-03 15.802516 20.760796 28.442606 42.734936 74.076031 168.015481 1184.619923
2025-08-10 15.355942 20.246440 27.876677 42.227531 74.307382 174.608797 1553.390796
2025-08-17 14.876321 19.663443 27.169462 41.395422 73.637113 177.622673 1932.644536
2025-08-24 14.413920 19.092291 26.458252 40.509154 72.728408 179.470383 2390.091514
2025-08-31 13.932996 18.477993 25.651382 39.387052 71.102364 177.885802 2718.135238
2025-09-07 13.859443 18.501085 25.922702 40.427392 75.210070 203.547896 10449.887618